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We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that gravity exerted its pull as early as 1700, but the distance effect then attenuated and had almost vanished by 1800. Meanwhile the empire effect peaked sometime in the late 18th century before significantly declining in magnitude. It was only after 1950 that distance would once again exert the same influence that it has today. In part, this suggests that despite the “iron law of trade models,” traded distances themselves are a policy outcome and are therefore influenced by geopolitics, technology, and trade policy, all of which vary greatly over time.
Presenter(s)
David S. Jacks, National University of Singapore
Non-Presenting Authors
Kevin O'Rourke, New York University, Abu Dhabi
Alan M. Taylor, University of California, Davis
The Gravitational Constant?
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Organized Session Abstract Submission
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Session: [106] INTERNATIONAL TRADE HISTORY Date: 4/14/2023 Time: 12:45 PM to 2:30 PM