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This study re-evaluates the efficacy of cigarette taxation in curtailing smoking. I use recent advancements in the difference-in-differences (DiD) literature to account for heterogeneous treatment effects and compare the findings to the two-way-fixed effect (TWFE) estimates. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Selected Metropolitan/Micropolitan Area Risk Trend (BRFSS SMART) for sample periods 2004-2010 and 2015-2020, the study presents three main findings. First, the results for 2004-2010 sample show that the TWFE estimate is only about 65% of the size of the overall average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) estimate obtained using DiD framework. Second, the event-study type estimates increase gradually in magnitude following the treatment year, thus demonstrating dynamic treatment effects ignored by the TWFE estimate. Third, the ATT estimate pertaining to 2015-2020 sample is only about 63% of the ATT estimate for 2004-2010 sample. Overall, the findings point out that relying on TWFE models to obtain elasticity estimates may bias the estimates towards zero.
Presenter(s)
Vinish Shrestha, Towson University
Revisiting the Effects of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking Outcomes
Category
Volunteer Session Abstract Submission
Description
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Session: [127] ISSUES IN TAX Date: 4/14/2023 Time: 4:45 PM to 6:30 PM